HMS Resolute, a 19th-century Royal Navy Barque, sent to explore the Arctic, lives on today as the famous Resolute Desk in the Oval Office—a reminder that the Far North has long captured the human imagination. Yet what once seemed a distant and frozen horizon is fast becoming an arena for geopolitical contestation. In recent months, world powers have floated ideas as stark as buying entire sovereign territories or turning friendly neighbours into de facto U.S. states. Meanwhile, Russia and China have conducted joint military manoeuvres in Arctic waters, testing Western resolve. Climate change has begun to open hitherto frozen Arctic Sea routes and reveal lucrative mineral deposits, transforming the High North into a realm where commerce, security, and ecology collide.
For most of the modern era, the Arctic remained largely off-limits: Polar ice thwarted travel and cloaked its hidden wealth. But warming temperatures now peel back the pack ice, tempting states with shorter shipping lanes, potential oil and gas fields, and rare earth minerals. These attractions have rekindled a competition reminiscent of the “Great Game” that once played out in Central Asia.
In the United States, such competition spurred dramatic statements from former President Donald Trump about purchasing Greenland—an autonomous Danish territory blessed with rare earth minerals. Trump’s backers even proposed that Canada could join the union as the 51st state. Though Canadians shrugged off the notion, the very talk of annexing a vast neighbour highlights Washington’s anxiety. Officials see the Arctic as more than just empty ice; for them, it is a potential resource trove and an American security perimeter.
Russia and China, too, have turned their eyes northward. Russia holds the longest Arctic coastline, and it has reopened Soviet-era bases, built new ports, and test-fired advanced weapons in these polar regions. China, despite lacking Arctic territory, has declared itself a “near-Arctic state.” The two countries have held joint naval exercises, even sending bombers close to Alaskan airspace. This partnership challenges the long-standing assumption that only states ringing the Arctic have a say in its governance. The Arctic Council, an inter-governmental forum comprising the eight Arctic states, is in suspended animation since 2022, when Rusia commenced its special military operations in Ukraine. The prospects of resumption appear bleak especially after two of the constituent members, Finland and Sweden joined NATO, making the Council a Russia vs NATO construct. NATO has also stepped up cold-weather training, while Canada and the United States discuss upgrades to their joint defence systems in the Far North.
Geological surveys estimate that Arctic may contain 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its untapped natural gas. Greenland alone boasts a quarter of world’s reserves of rare earth minerals, vital for smartphones, electric vehicles, and solar panels. As economies race to secure these high-tech minerals, the Arctic’s allure grows stronger. The retreat of sea ice also opens new passages for maritime commerce. The Northern Sea Route, skirting the Siberian coast, can shave two weeks off a voyage from East Asia to Western Europe. China calls it the “Polar Silk Road”. Russia is investing heavily in icebreakers and infrastructure to safeguard and profit from this emerging corridor. If traffic increases, it could threaten the dominance of older trade pathways like the Suez Canal and reshape global shipping patterns.
The Arctic’s transformation isn’t only about human ambition. Climate change threatens fragile polar ecosystems, from walrus habitats to indigenous livelihoods. Melting permafrost releases more greenhouse gases, accelerating global warming. Rising seas reach far beyond Arctic shores, posing grave risks to coastal regions worldwide.
Even though India lies thousands of kilometres south of the North Pole, the melting Arctic affects it in several ways. The Arctic acts like a thermostat for the Northern Hemisphere. When Arctic temperatures rise and ice recedes, it can alter the jet stream, which in turn influences India’s monsoons. Erratic monsoons mean floods in some regions, droughts in others, and stress on agriculture that supports almost 60 percent of India’s livelihoods. Rising sea levels threaten India’s 1400 islands and potentially mass exodus from low lying Bangladesh and Maldives. India recognized these links early on, establishing an Arctic research station, Himadri, in Svalbard in 2008, becoming the only developing country apart from China, to have such as facility. Through observational data, Indian scientists study how Arctic changes ripple through weather systems all the way to the Indian subcontinent. This research also helps refine global climate models and strengthen India’s bargaining position in climate negotiations.
As India’s economy grows, so does its appetite for energy and minerals. Collaborations in Arctic oil and LNG could diversify its supplies and ensure energy security, while the region’s rare earth deposits might offer alternatives to current mineral dependencies. Yet venturing into the Arctic also brings hazards: high production costs, volatile geopolitics, and a fragile environment that demands careful safeguards. India holds an observer seat in the Arctic Council, where it joins nations shaping polar policies. Maintaining close ties with Russia, a leading Arctic power, grants India potential access to new energy projects. At the same time, India also values its expanding relationship with the United States, which has belatedly realised the Arctic significance and is eager to ensure that its supremacy in the region remains unaltered by the emerging Sino-Russian collaboration. The Nordics can provide India with the much-needed clean technologies. By engaging all sides, India hopes to preserve a stable polar order and secure a place at the table when decisions are made.
Firstly, India should continue strengthening Arctic research capabilities—both the physical infrastructure at Himadri and the operational capacity to undertake extended missions. Expeditiously acquiring an Indian ice-class research vessel could support year-round studies, ensuring that scientists collect critical data on Arctic warming and its links to the monsoon.
Secondly, as the Arctic Council grapples with tensions, India can build on its reputation as a neutral, responsible actor. It should maintain communication channels with Russia on energy and resource deals while engaging Western allies on environmental standards. Regular dialogue with Nordic countries, Canada, and the U.S. can keep India updated on new shipping routes and resource discoveries.
Thirdly, India could pursue joint ventures in Arctic LNG, rare earth mining, and shipping logistics, minimizing risk through international consortia. Partnering with countries that have Arctic experience—like Norway or Canada—would help India adopt best practices. In each venture, India should insist on high environmental safeguards to protect indigenous rights and ecosystems.
Fourthly, India benefits from a stable international system that respects sovereignty and fosters collaboration. By upholding the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), India helps ensure that freedom of navigation and overflight is ensured in the region. India should also advocate for strict rules on resource extraction and shipping emissions, positioning itself as a voice for sustainable Arctic development.
The original HMS Resolute was found adrift in Arctic ice before being salvaged and returned to Britain—a gesture of goodwill that eventually led to the crafting of the Resolute Desk. That historic journey shows how the polar regions, though harsh and remote, can inspire cooperation. Today, those same waters face a tug of war among states eager to tap submerged riches or wield strategic clout.
The Arctic is more than a geopolitical chessboard. It is a fragile environment whose shifts echo in Indian monsoon rains, European weather patterns, and global sea levels. For India, the stakes are high enough to justify active engagement, whether through scientific expeditions or measured economic deals. By championing international law, investing in research, and crafting responsible policies, India can help steer the Arctic toward collaboration rather than conflict. As the ice recedes, the Far North no longer stands as an isolated frontier. The world looks to the Arctic and sees both bounty and peril.
Anurag Bisen, Senior Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation
Pooja Arora, Ph.D Candidate, Jawaharlal Nehru University
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