Introduction
In recent years, the term ‘Global South’ has been increasingly gaining wider usage and popularity. There is no universally accepted criteria and definition of this term, however, it is usually used to denote developing or least developed countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. These countries carry a ‘sense of injustice’ and inequality that is embedded in the global governance. With the rise of India, Brazil, South Africa and China, the Global South perspective on critical issues is getting widely highlighted these days. One such area is the impact of climate change which, undoubtedly, has more severe consequences for the countries of the Global South.
The two Polar Regions, the Antarctica and the Arctic play a critical role in maintaining earth’s temperature as they have a central role in maintain global climate system. However, in recent some decades, the Arctic has been experiencing heat at a faster rate than the rest of the world. A 2022 study even indicates that the Arctic has been warming four times faster than the globe since 1979, a process known as ‘Arctic Amplification’ (Mika Rantanen et. al. (2022). The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979. Commun Earth Environ 3, 168). Some scientists have even argued that the Arctic is on track to be summer ice-free by 2040 while the autumn and winter temperatures in the region will be 22 degrees higher in 2100 compared to end of 20th century, if the carbon emissions are not controlled.
As Arctic ice melts, the Sun’s energy will be absorbed more instead of being reflected back to space which will lead to rise in temperatures around the world. Arctic will not be able to properly function as the global refrigerator. Needless to say, these developments will be disastrous for global climate and livelihoods, especially in the countries of the Global South. The matter is made worse by the fact that there is an ongoing geopolitical tussle in the Arctic Council following the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Global South and the Arctic
India is the only Global South country, apart from China to have research stations in both the Polar Regions. India’s Antarctica research program began in 1983 while the Arctic research took off in 2008 with the establishment of Himadri research station. The Antarctica is governed by an independent treaty known as the Antarctica Treaty in which India is a Consultative Party since 1983. Due to this international treaty enabled governance system in the Antarctica, this continent remains open to all countries for conducting research as it is part of the Global Commons. However, this is not the case with the Arctic as its area falls under the national jurisdiction of different countries. Research collaboration in the Arctic can be done in collaboration with these countries.
In India, the Himalayas are generally seen as the ‘Third Pole’, apart from the Arctic and the Antarctica. In that sense, experts have described India as a ‘Tri-Polar’ nation. There are critical linkages between these three poles which have a direct impact on India. Himalayan glacier melt is something that India has been studying and Arctic is likely to provide some answers to this issue. The idea is to harmonise India’s Polar research with the Himalayan research. Indian Monsoons are impacted by the developments in the Arctic.
India has witnessed extreme weather events recently in its northern parts that can be directly related to the Arctic. A recent research paper has indicated that summer sea ice loss in the Kara Sea region of the Arctic may be triggering extreme monsoon rainfall events in central India in the month of September. (Sourav Chatterjee et. al. (2021). A possible relation between Arctic sea ice and late season Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall extremes. npj Clim Atmos Sci 4, 36). According to another study conducted by the scientists at India’s National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR), warm Arctic conditions have links with intense rainfall over the Indian subcontinent while cold conditions in the Arctic are associated with weak spells of rain over the Indian subcontinent over the past 1,000 years. (Vikash Kumar et. al. (2023). Arctic climate-Indian monsoon teleconnection during the last millennium revealed through geochemical proxies from an Arctic fjord. Global and Planetary Change. Volume 222, March).
The above mentioned studies are very important for India as they impact Monsoon season that plays an important role in agriculture and water resources in the country. The patterns emerging out of the relationship between the Arctic sea ice and Indian monsoons can help Indian scientific community to understand rainfall patterns and prepare for floods and droughts. The Arctic ice melt is likely to increase the water level in the Indian Ocean and would impact Indian people living along its coastline in cities like Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. Sea level rise is a major threat to countries like India which have a long coastline, as per the World Meteorological Organisation 2023 report.
Sea level rise will also impact India’s neighbouring states. Two-thirds of Bangladesh is only five metres above the sea level, making it very vulnerable to sea level rise. Already, there are voices arguing that Bangladesh needs to seek an observer seat at the Arctic Council. Another country that will be seriously impacted by rising sea level is Maldives. Maldives’ 75 per cent of land is hardly one meter above the sea level, and even a small sea level rise will create serious problems for the island nation. (Paradise Prepares: Maldives Pioneers Climate Resilience with Early Warning Systems. (2024). UN Sustainable Development Group).
For Pakistan, the Arctic ice melt will not only exacerbates its climate crisis but also threatens its ability to achieve its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) targets. South Asia is also staring at the problem of climate refugees due to rise in sea level. The region does not have legal and governance mechanisms to deal with such complex issues.
The effects of climate change in the Arctic go far beyond the Arctic Council countries. However, the Arctic governance has broken down as the Arctic Council was suspended in March 2022 when Russia-Ukraine conflict began. The Cold War like situation is very clear in the Arctic Council as the other seven countries except Russia are now members of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
Members of the Arctic Council may not be the first ones to experience impact of climate change in the region. The ongoing deadlock in the Arctic Council is more serious for the Global South as the Council largely focuses on issues of sustainable and environmental development in the Arctic region. The military and security issues are especially excluded from its agenda. This situation also impacts the indigenous people in the Arctic but they were not even consulted by the permanent members of the Arctic Council before deciding to suspend it. These people can play an important part in conflict resolution as their worldview is less influenced by geopolitics and more by family and community ties. In fact, due to their marginalisation, the Arctic indigenous people are also referred to as the ‘Global South’ in the ‘Global North’. The Global South and the Arctic indigenous people are out of the regional decision making at the moment. The Global South nonetheless has marginal presence, as only India and China are observer states at the Arctic Council. As far as the natural resources are concerned, almost 85 percent of them are under various Exclusive Economic Zones of different countries in the Arctic and their extraction is not problematic, like in the case of South China Sea. But this does require sensitivity to the environment.
India and its neighbours are already experiencing the effects of climate change in the Arctic. The Arctic ice melt has a global impact, a fact that still needs to be underlined through Arctic governance mechanisms. The Arctic Council cannot take binding decisions. India can bring to play its experience of G20 Summit in Delhi where it was able to minimise differences between various differing voices in order to strengthen the developmental agenda to support the Global South. In case there is a thaw in India-China relations in coming months, China too can contribute in this regard. India and China have some history of cooperation over climate change through groupings like BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, China).
The Arctic states should think to prioritise treaty based cooperation for Arctic governance. (Elena Kavanagh. Op. Cit). Here, one can highlight that the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan has been successful and survived three wars between the two countries. However, now, it is the threat of climate change due to which it needs to be renegotiated. Similarly, the climate change threat and its impact on the Global South should get reflected in Arctic Council’s governance.
Under Russia’s attempts to ‘Easternisze’ the Arctic governance, there is hope for more participation of the Global South countries in the Arctic region. Russia’s keen interest to cooperate with the BRICS countries in this regard can make some real difference. Mechanisms are already in place to facilitate this cooperation, for ex, the Ministers of Environment of BRICS countries have been meeting since 2015 to discuss issues of sustainable development.
Conclusion
Climate change in the Arctic has global ramifications including in the countries of Global South. India is the only Global South country apart from China to have a research station in the Arctic. Having good relations with both the West and Russia, India should aspire to minimise the differences among them in the Arctic Council. At the same time, India should work with all the willing countries at the bilateral level in the Arctic in order to study the impact of climate change in the Arctic on the wider Global South. Russia will be an important partner for India in such endeavours in the future.
Dr Raj Kumar Sharma
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