Articles

The “Battle” for Greenland

 

Prior to his inauguration, Donald J. Trump reiterated his proposal to purchase Greenland from the Kingdom of Denmark, an idea he first expressed during his first presidential term in 2019. Shortly after his second inauguration, the 47th President of the United States gave a phone call to the Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, persistently attempting to persuade her to relinquish or sell the island.

The town of Ilulissat, Greenland. Photo: The Seattle Times

The primary goals by President Trump towards Greenland are as follows:

  • First, he wants to prevent the strengthening of the Chinese presence on the island, particularly access of Chinese companies to the development of deposits of uranium, rare earth elements, non-ferrous metals and oil and gas resources. According to American geological data, the territory of Greenland contains deposits of 43 out of 50 minerals that the U.S. government considers to be "critically important". These include the rare earth elements, which are vital for nuclear technology, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, the chemical industry, microelectronics and other areas. Estimates suggest that the total global reserve of these minerals is less than 160 million tons, with 38.5 million tons of these reserves located in Greenland.
  • Second, it is vital that American companies are granted access to Greenland's natural resources. Following the deterioration of relations between Washington and Russia and China, there has been a decline or even cessation in some cases of uranium and rare earth metals supplies from those nations to the United States. The Trump administration is seeking to address the shortage of these resources by sourcing them from Greenland.
  • Last but not least, Donald Trump believes that the American military presence and infrastructure on the island is to be expanded. Greenland currently hosts the American space base in Pituffik (formerly the Thule Air Force Base), which controls the airspace of the Far North, including the purpose of preventing the alleged missile attacks through the North Pole. So far, President Trump has expressed concerns that this infrastructure is not adequate to ensure U.S. national security in the Arctic. The American military also believes that Greenland could play a greater role in controlling the so-called GIUK (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom) gap, which is important for NATO in terms of detection of Russian submarines navigating from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic and back. The U.S. believes that this also requires expanding the American military presence on the island. U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said:

President Trump has made it clear that Greenland's security is important to the United States as China and Russia make significant investments in the Arctic region.

With the exception of politicians and experts close to Donald Trump, such as the Heritage Foundation and the RAND Corporation, the majority of Western experts do not consider the intentions of the new-old American president to be particularly serious. They point to statements by Danish officials, including Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, about the impossibility of selling the island to the U.S. and any economic and/or military methods of pressure by Washington on Copenhagen. In addition, the Greenlanders themselves, as articulated by their Prime Minister Múte Egede, have no intention of becoming a U.S. state and aspire to gain full independence from Denmark in the future.

According to Roseanne McManus, an Associate Professor of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University, Trump’s erratic foreign policy behavior, including his threats to take Greenland from Denmark represent a variation of the so-called “madman strategy”. This negotiating style involves creating the appearance of inappropriate behavior and confusing opponents by seizing the initiative in contentious issues. Dr. McManus believes that Trump's actions are deliberately aligned with this strategy while he does not necessarily expect Greenland to join. At the same time, the U.S. President anticipates that Denmark will make big concessions on all three points important to him.

It is noteworthy that Copenhagen has already signaled its readiness to negotiate with Washington on the Greenland issue. Thus, in early 2025, Greg Barnes, director of Tanbreez Mining, which is engaged in the development of rare earth metals in Greenland, told Reuters that American government officials had persistently asked him not to sell mining rights to Chinese companies. In the end, Barnes agreed to sell Tanbreez to New York-based Critical Metals Corp.

Following Trump's announcement of his intention to purchase Greenland, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen revealed Copenhagen's plan to allocate $1.5 billion for Greenland's defense. Specifically, these funds will be allocated to the procurement of two patrol ships, two long-range drones, several dog sleds with crews, and additional personnel for the Danish Arctic Command in Greenland’s capital city of Nuuk. Denmark also intends to invest in upgrading the island's Kangerlussuaq airport so that it can receive F-35 fighters purchased by Denmark from the U.S. In turn, Mette Frederiksen said about her readiness to dialogue with the Trump administration on the full range of Greenlandic issues, with the exception of the matter of the island's potential sale to the United States.

Some experts believe that President Trump is deliberately provoking further discussions in Greenland about a speedy separation from Denmark. Thus, Jacob Kaarsbo, an employee of the Europe think-tank and a former officer of the Danish military intelligence, believes that the U.S. President may well deliberately escalate the situation in order to speed up Greenland's exit from Denmark, and then impose economic and political patronage on the young state. Peter Viggo Jakobsen, a Professor at the Royal Danish Defense College, emphasizes that promises of beneficial cooperation with the United States could become a compelling argument in favor of independence for the Greenlanders. He argues that if Trump offers the Greenlanders more favorable conditions, the population may potentially vote for independence as early as the spring of 2025. Currently, Denmark is Greenland’s largest trading partner and annually subsidizes the economy of the autonomous territory by more than $500 million, that is, more than half of the island’s annual budget.

While most Western experts are skeptical about the prospect of Donald Trump acquiring Greenland, they are divided over the specific conditions of a potential Danish-American compromise. Until very recently, it was expected that compromise may be reached as a result of the proposed negotiations between Washington and Copenhagen. Still, it seems that the ball is in the court of the skeptics. The situation escalated rapidly as soon as the Danish Prime Minister reiterated her position on Greenland in her talk with Trump over the phone which was followed by Trump accusing Copenhagen of "unfriendly behavior."

Prof. Alexander Sergunin

 
28.01.2025