We must acknowledge that we are in a difficult situation..
One in two northerners says that they fear a war of invasion in their lifetime. Steinar Kongshavn in the Armed Forces believes that a little fear is healthy.
We are a neighboring country to Russia. They are a superpower that is proving unstable and aggressive. So, we must acknowledge that we are in a difficult situation, says Andreas Østhagen, senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute.
On Wednesday he was present at the High North Dialogue security conference in Bodø. One of the topics was security policy.
A recent survey Norstat has conducted on behalf of NRK shows that around half of the 2,400 respondents in Northern Norway say they fear a war invasion.
The concern is greatest in Nordland.
Are you worried about a military invasion of Northern Norway in your lifetime?
Østhagen thinks it is a shame that such a large proportion of Northerners feel a fear of war.
Of course, people should not feel fear in everyday life. Unfortunately, the situation we live in now is not as different as it was during the Cold War, when people actually practiced a possible invasion or a nuclear war.
The survey shows little difference between age groups, but there is a certain difference between the genders.
Are you worried about a military invasion of Northern Norway in your lifetime?
At Nord University, on the other hand, there is little that distinguishes men and women among those NRK has spoken to.
Gro Eli Stoltenberg:
War is more realistic now than 5-10 years ago, so I understand that people are more afraid now than before. Personally, I try to be positive. I can't go around being afraid.
Markus Fjellheim Fosseli:
I fear war a little. We don't know what our neighbors are doing at all times.The situation is different now than ten years ago. We have also seen in the past that we have been surprised by war, for example when Russia invaded Ukraine, so we can never be completely safe.
Guro Olsen:
I don't fear war invasion. I have never thought about it happening. I don't trust Putin, but I trust the rest of the world.
Elias Sæter:
No, I don't fear war, even though the risk is there. There is some uncertainty in the world right now, so I wouldn't be surprised if it happens. But I don't fear it that way on a daily basis.
Steinar Kongshavn, head of the planning division at the Armed Forces' operational headquarters, believes that a little fear is healthy.
That half fear a war invasion is a high number. I think it is an expression of the times we live in. We just have to acknowledge that we live in a slightly different time than what we have done in the past ten years, he says.
When you look at the open threat assessments that exist, there is little to indicate that it is a possible scenario. But, of course, we must always be prepared. Therefore, it is very good that people are concerned about it, and people should be aware of their own preparedness and security.
Kongshavn refers to the threat assessment of the PST and the e-service that came out in February.
Based on those assessments, land war or ground war is not a major threat right now. But that could of course change in the coming years.
Both Kongshavn in the Armed Forces and Andreas Østhagen at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute acknowledge that the situation in major politics is unusually tense.
Both are closely following what is happening in the U.S.
The fear we see in the survey is probably something to do with the situation in the U.S., says Østhagen. - The U.S. has been our security guarantee for the last 70-80 years. When Trump says the things he says, and the U.S. proves to be an unreliable partner, there is of course also a fear that Russia may see an opportunity and exploit a perceived weakness in the alliance.
Steinar Kongshavn in explains that they work closely with the U.S.
The U.S. is our most important ally on the military side, so we continue to work very well with the U.S. defense. The Trump administration's policies affect Norway as a state, but militarily we still have a very strong and good cooperation, and the U.S. is and will be our most important ally for the foreseeable future.
Source: NRK (in Norwegian)
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