Pierre Poilievre, a conservative candidate for Canada's prime minister, if elected, intends to reverse Canada’s decades-long decline as a military power. He has pledged to establish a permanent Arctic military base, invest in icebreakers, and substantially increase defense spending. According to 19fortyfive, these measures "represent the most serious commitment to revitalizing the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) in a generation."
The goals are clear: enhancing the country's sovereignty in a changing environment, particularly as "Russia and China expand their footprints in the region," while addressing recent concerns raised by U.S. allegations toward Canada.
Nevertheless, Andrew Latham, professor of International Relations at Macalester College, admits, "Canada’s aging military infrastructure, particularly its naval capabilities, remains inadequate to meet these challenges. Without urgent investment, Canada risks ceding its ability to protect its own territory and interests."
While the importance of security is acknowledged in Canada, it hasn't always translated into policy action. For instance, the strategies of the Trudeau government have been criticized for not resulting in real investment. Currently, Canada's northern presence is minimal, with the small, seasonal station at Alert serving mainly as a research and signals intelligence hub. Without sustained military operations, Canada risks losing sovereignty in a region where rival powers are expanding their influence. A year-round base would reinforce Canada's commitment to defending its Arctic territory.
However, infrastructure alone isn't sufficient. Canada's naval capabilities require urgent modernization. Poilievre's plans include acquiring up to 12 submarines, building 15 Canadian Surface Combatants (CSCs), and continuing production of Arctic and Offshore Patrol Ships (AOPS). Yet progress has been slow, and existing resources are stretched thin. The Royal Canadian Navy lacks year-round Arctic capability, while the Coast Guard’s aging icebreakers are primarily for civilian support.
Submarines will be vital for operations in the Arctic, Atlantic, and Pacific. Canada's four Victoria-class submarines are outdated and unreliable, especially in Arctic conditions. Procuring new submarines is essential, but unclear timelines risk further delays.
Beyond security, Canada's credibility as an ally is at stake. Successive U.S. administrations, both Democratic and Republican, have urged Canada to increase its defense spending. Under Trudeau, however, Canada has remained far below the NATO target of 2% of GDP, even attempting to reclassify non-military expenditures as defense spending to create the illusion of progress.
This has only reinforced the perception in Washington that Canada benefits from the security umbrella provided by the United States while making little effort to contribute meaningfully to collective defense.
Poilievre’s defense commitments, if followed through, would represent a much-needed reset in U.S.-Canada defense relations. Strengthening Arctic defenses, modernizing the military, and ensuring a credible naval presence in both the Atlantic and Pacific would demonstrate that Canada is prepared to take its responsibilities seriously.
—Andrew Latham
At its core, Poilievre’s plan is about ensuring that Canada is no longer passive in its own security, it is said. The alternative is continued decline, dwindling influence, and increasing dependence on allies.
Source: 19fortyfive
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