Last year was marked by a historic record for transit cargo shipments along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). According to estimates by the management of the state corporation Rosatom, these volumes reached 2.12 million tonnes. The result is particularly encouraging given that Arctic transit had dropped to barely 200,000 tonnes in 2022. What can we expect in the current year, considering the efforts made by Russia and its partner countries to further develop the route?
Winter-spring navigation along the NSR began earlier than usual this year. Starting October 15, all vessels without an ice class were advised against sailing in its eastern sector. By October 20, this area was to be cleared of Ice 1–Ice 3 class vessels.
Now, vessels of higher ice classes and the increasing fleet of Russian icebreakers are expected to play a key role in ensuring year-round navigation along the NSR. This makes it particularly interesting to assess the progress achieved in the preceding months, especially in light of data from international observers closely monitoring Russia's Arctic success. One notable source is the recent research by Norway's Centre for High North Logistics (CHNL), which relies on various sources, including automated ship tracking systems (AIS), though not limited to them.
From January through September 2024, CHNL analysts recorded 79 transit voyages of transport vessels along the NSR, estimating the cargo transported at 2.38 million tonnes. If these estimates hold, a new record for transit cargo along the NSR may be in the making. However, these figures require further clarification once the whole year's results are available. Preliminary conclusions from Norwegian observers point to an expected pattern: approximately 95 per cent of all transit cargo along the NSR consisted of shipments from Russia to China.
This proportion underscores the active development of Russia-China economic relations and creates favorable conditions for increasing bilateral trade balances in Russia’s favor. While the scale may not match Russia's surplus with India, the prospects remain promising.
As for the composition of transit cargo, crude oil accounted for the lion's share. In second place, though with a significant gap, were bulk and loose goods such as iron ore, coal, and mineral fertilizers. Container transportation has also picked up, with containers moving in both directions, unlike oil and bulk goods. Notably, container flows between Russia and China were almost evenly balanced. However, as of early October, only one shipment of LNG had been delivered via the NSR.
Of the nearly 80 transit voyages, 28 were from Russia to Chinese ports, and 26 were in the reverse direction. An additional 25 voyages were between Russian ports: 10 in the eastern sector and 15 in the western sector. In total, vessels traveled west-to-east along the NSR 38 times and east-to-west 41 times.
Despite the higher number of westbound transits, actual cargo delivery was significantly greater in the eastbound direction. This discrepancy arises because most westbound vessels (26 out of 41) were traveling in ballast, whereas only seven of the 38 eastbound vessels were empty.
Most westbound transits (15) were made by oil tankers, of which only eight later returned to China with Russian crude oil. Additionally, five bulk carriers arrived empty from Chinese ports. It is unclear whether these vessels returned via the NSR with cargo.
Notably, CHNL experts highlighted the no-cargo transit of the LNG tanker North Sky, which had previously delivered a shipment of liquefied gas from Sabetta to China. They also reported the journey of the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2 (Snow Dragon) to Murmansk which formally took place outside the main NSR route, closer to the polar zone at latitudes 83°–85° N. This icebreaker, commissioned in 2019 and fully constructed by Chinese shipbuilders, can reach speeds of up to 15 knots in open water and break through ice up to 1.5 meters thick at speeds of 2–3 knots.
Over the nine months of 2024, 14 tankers participated in transporting black gold, each completing a shipping to Chinese ports. Ten of these tankers delivered approximately 1.1 million tonnes of oil from Murmansk. Another 320,000 tonnes were shipped on three vessels from Primorsk, and about 66,000 tonnes were delivered by the tanker Mikhail Ulyanov from the Prirazlomnaya oil platform on the Pechora Sea shelf. Most of the shipments ranged between 100,000 and 110,000 tonnes per vessel, with a few exceptions. The tankers Prisma (120,000 tonnes), as well as Sai Baba and Nanda Devi (likely Indian vessels), each carried 140,000 tonnes of oil.
In addition to their expected “convenient” flags (Prisma operates under the Cook Islands flag, while the other two sail under Gabonese flags), all three tankers share another notable trait: their advanced age (18–21 years). Remarkably, neither their age nor their minimal ice class (Ice 2) prevented these ships from successfully navigating the entire NSR.
This segment was serviced by seven vessels, each completing one voyage. From Murmansk, two bulk carriers transported 315,000 tonnes of iron ore concentrate, while two others delivered 86,000 tonnes of mineral fertilizers from St. Petersburg to China. The largest volume of bulk cargo (coal) was shipped from Ust-Luga on three carriers, with each transporting 75,000–100,000 tonnes. Notably, the largest vessel involved in the route was the 20-year-old ore carrier Platos under the Panama flag, capable of carrying 160,000 tonnes but lacking an ice class.
During the reporting period, only one LNG shipment carrying 72,000 tonnes of blue fuel was transported from Vysotsk to China via the NSR. These figures do not include LNG shipments from Sabetta, which CHNL observers classify as part of the general cargo flow along the NSR.
Six container ships participated in container transportation between Russia and China. Two of these delivered general cargo from Arkhangelsk. Containers themselves were transported by four vessels—two from Arkhangelsk and two from St. Petersburg. These same ships handled return voyages, all to Arkhangelsk. Their deadweight ranged from 23,000 to 40,000 tonnes, and except for one (the 25-year-old Newnew Moon), all had Ice 1–Ice 2 classes. Despite their variety of “convenient” flags, all four container ships were managed by Chinese operators.
In conclusion, some unique aspects of transit via the NSR deserve mention, specifically the transport of special-purpose general cargo. This includes the shipment of two 11,000-tonne modules for the Arctic LNG-2 project from the Chinese port Penglai to Murmansk. Notably, this operation was carried out under harsh winter navigation conditions (January–February 2024) with the participation of two Chinese heavy-lift vessels—Audax and Pugnax—boasting solid Arc7 ice classes.
Additionally, in September, a relatively small (~3,000 tonnes) shipment of general cargo was delivered from Nantong to Ust-Luga by the Fesco Uliss (Arc4 ice class). Thus, the preliminary results of Arctic transit in 2024 inspire cautious optimism.
Source: Korabel
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