On Saturday, November 30, snap elections to the Icelandic parliament will take place, as a result of which all three ruling parties will suffer a crushing defeat, and two of them may go into political oblivion. Thus, they will answer to voters for the failed economic and social policies that have led the country to a dead end in development.
Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson, leader of the Progressive Party. Photo: Golli.
Two of the parties that formed the outgoing government coalition are at risk of being wiped from Alþingi, Iceland’s Parliament, a new poll indicates. With the election a week away, the Progressive Party and the Left-Green Movement are polling below the 5% threshold which guarantees representation in Alþingi, Mbl.is reports.
The new poll, conducted by Prósent and published yesterday, shows the Liberal Reform Party as the frontrunner with 22%. The Social Democratic Alliance is close behind with 18.3%. The parties are neck and neck, as this is within the poll’s margin of error.
The third coalition party, Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s Independence Party, is polling at only 11.5%. The Progressive Party has 4.4% support and the Left-Green Movement only 3%, which would most likely result in both parties losing the entirety of their seats in Alþingi.
The 30 November election could therefore result in a historic loss for an outgoing government coalition. On 13 October, Bjarni announced that the coalition had collapsed and called a snap election.
Two more opposition parties are likely to gain seats in Alþingi compared to the 2021 election. The Centre Party is polling at 13.5%, while the People’s Party has 12.5% support.
The Pirate Party would get 6.7% of the vote, according to the poll. The Icelandic Socialist Party would get representation in Alþingi for the first time on the back of 6.4% support.
Source: Iceland Review (23.11.2024)
The Social Democratic Alliance leader Kristrún Frostadóttir. Photo: Golli.
The Social Democratic Alliance leads the latest Maskína poll with 22.7% support while the Liberal Reform Party follows closely behind at 20.9% support. The two parties are close to a parliamentary majority, winning 31 seats combined, if the results of the poll hold.
The Social Democratic Alliance has seen its support increase by nearly three percentage points within a week, according to the latest Maskína poll published yesterday (see below figures).
Social Democratic Alliance – 22.7%
Liberal Reform Party – 20.9%
Independence Party – 14.6%
Centre Party – 12.6%
People’s Party – 8.8%
Progressive Party – 5.9%
Socialist Party – 5.0%
Pirate Party – 4.3%
The Left-Green Movement – 3.1%
Democracy Party – 1.6%
Responsible Future – 0.6%
The poll was conducted between November 15 and 20, with 1,400 participants.
The Social Democratic Alliance is polling at 22.7%, up from 20.1% in the previous Maskína poll.
After a downward trend in polls since May, this is the first time the party has increased its support between polls, Vísir notes. The party is now nearly matching its polling results from October 18.
Þórður Snær Júlíusson, a parliamentary candidate for the Social Democratic Alliance, announced last Saturday that he would not take a parliamentary seat if elected, due to backlash over old blog posts.
In an interview with Vísir yesterday, Grétar Þór Eyþórsson, a professor of political science at the University of Akureyri, conjectured that Þórður’s departure could explain the increased support.
“There had been talk that women were turning away from the party because of this issue, but according to the poll breakdown, proportionally more women than men now plan to vote for the party,” Grétar Þór noted.
Close to 23% of Maskína’s women respondents stated that they would vote for the Social Democratic Alliance.
The Liberal Reform Party continues to climb between polls, gaining a full percentage point, from 19.9% to 20.9%, since last week. There remains a significant gap between the Liberal Reform Party and the Independence Party, with the latter party having gained 1.2 percentage points, now polling at 14.6%.
“The Liberal Reform Party seems to have stabilised around 20%, just below or around that mark,” Grétar noted. “This is good news for the Liberal Reform Party. As for the Independence Party, this and previous polls suggest it is struggling to gain momentum and appears unlikely to rise much above 14%.”
While the Social Democratic Alliance, the Liberal Reform Party, and the Independence Party all gained support between Maskína polls, the Centre Party is the only other party not to lose support, keeping steady at 12.6%. The Left-Green Movement continues to struggle.
“The Left Greens seem stuck around 3 to 3.5%, with no indication that they will reach the 5% threshold,” Grétar observed, referring to the threshold where achieving parliamentary representation becomes a mathematical certainty.
The Progressive Party has seen its support drop from 7.3% to 5.9% in a week.
“The Progressive Party remains above the 5% threshold in this poll, but they are losing ground compared to previous surveys. There is no positive news for the Progressives here,” Grétar stated.
Grétar argued that while the Socialist Party’s improvement during last week’s polls was not an anomaly, the party was struggling to maintain its momentum, having fallen from 6.3% to 5% in the latest Maskína poll.
“It’s getting very close to the election, and based on this, they’re not quite holding onto that support. They’re at 5%, so they are far from secure,” he explained.
The Pirate Party will not secure a seat in parliament, according to the Maskína poll, falling from 5.1% to 4.3%. Grétar pointed out that the Pirates have often polled higher than their actual election results, which raises concerns about their performance.
“They may need to work harder to turn things around, or it could end badly for them,” Grétar noted.
Based on the results of the new Maskína poll, the Social Democratic Alliance would win 16 seats, the Liberal Reform Party 15, the Independence Party 10, the Centre Party 9, the People’s Party 6, the Progressive Party 4, and the Socialists 3.
“The Social Democratic Alliance and the Liberal Reform Party are very close to a parliamentary majority with 31 seats combined. They would still need at least one more partner to form a coalition,” Grétar observed.
The final outcome could, however, change if the Left-Green Movement or the Pirate Party secured constituency seats or reached the 5% threshold.
“If the Pirates manage to get 5% and three levelling seats [a mechanism to ensure proportional representation by redistributing seats among parties that pass the 5% national vote threshold, balancing disparities from constituency results], it raises the question of whether those parties who enjoy strong rural support might lose a seat to the Social Democratic Alliance or the Liberal Reform Party. We saw this dynamic play out in the 2013 elections,” Grétar concluded.
Source: Iceland Review (22.11.2024)
Kristrún Frostadóttir. Photo: RÚV – Skjáskot
Kristrún Frostadóttir has been the leader of Samfylkingin since 2022. Under her leadership, the party has risen significantly in opinion polls, with support exceeding 30% earlier this year, the highest in 15 years.
Recently, however, the party’s support has declined somewhat in various polls.
Nonetheless, based on opinion polls, it seems likely that Samfylkingin will be part of the next government. Asked whether any issues are so important that no compromises could be made during coalition negotiations, Kristrún highlighted the housing market and the healthcare system.
Kristrún believes that investment is needed in the healthcare system, despite recognising the potential for cost-efficiency measures.
Regarding the housing market, Kristrún emphasises the need to curb profiteering.
There must be limits on using housing for anything other than simply being people’s homes.
"It is a precondition that we re-establish sound economic management in the country, and we do not want to see continued deficit financing of the Treasury,” she says, adding that the government’s deficit has contributed to inflation and high interest rates.
Despite Samfylkingin’s significant increase in support during its renewal, there has been a decline leading up to the elections. Some have argued that the party’s new policies do not align with the Social Democratic Alliance’s traditional values of social democracy.
“First of all, the nation has yet to speak in this election, and that is something we will listen to,” says Kristrún, noting that much of Samfylkingin’s renewal has been about returning to the essence of social democracy.
Source: RÚV (26.11.2024)
Arnar Þór Jónsson. Photo: RÚV – Skjáskot
Arnar Þór Jónsson, founder of Lýðræðisflokkurinn [Democracy Party], established the party just a month before the elections. Despite this, the party is running in all constituencies. Arnar Þór says he aims to revolutionise Icelandic politics.
Arnar Þór Jónsson founded the Lýðræðisflokkurinn [Democracy Party] only a month before the parliamentary elections, scheduled for next Saturday. Previously, he has worked as a lawyer, judge, and substitute member of parliament for the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn [Independence Party]. He also ran for president in the last presidential election.
He was a guest on RÚV's Forystusætið yesterday evening.
Arnar Þór explains that he founded the party both to bring fresh energy into Icelandic politics and because he believes Icelandic politics have deviated from their proper path.
"I believe they have started serving foreign institutions and various systems, both domestic and international," he says, adding that politics have begun to serve other forces rather than the public.
"I believe politicians in Iceland should serve the people of this country first and foremost, but Icelandic politicians seem to have forgotten that," says Arnar Þór.
"I think all political parties currently running, apart from the Democracy Party, have repeatedly betrayed their voters," he claims, though he excludes the Sósíalistaflokkurinn [Socialist Party] as they have not yet had representatives in parliament.
There were rumours that Arnar Þór might join the Miðflokkurinn [Centre Party] before the elections, but he explains that he primarily wanted to create his own party. He asserts that his party has a clear distinction from the Centre Party.
"We have unequivocally advocated for being a voice for peace; we oppose all arms purchases, which no other political party in Iceland does," he states, adding that one of the party's main goals is to reduce the interest burden on individuals. The party's manifesto aims to increase individual freedoms and reduce state centralisation.
Another goal of the Democracy Party is to deliver a balanced budget and systematically reduce the state's debt. This is to be achieved by scaling back government operations by up to 20%, or around 300 billion ISK."I believe, firstly, that there are significant opportunities for savings within the state budget, and it is clear that there is widespread extravagant spending, both on housing acquisitions and office furnishings across the country," says Arnar.
Source: RÚV (27.11.2024)
Kristrún Frostadóttir (The Social Democratic Alliance). Photo: Golli
Icelandic voters head to the polls on November 30, with recent surveys showing slight shifts in party support, although the Social Democratic Alliance remains in the lead. Residents in rural East Iceland are urged to vote early due to a poor weather forecast on election day.
According to the latest polls, the political landscape remains largely unchanged with only two days remaining until the election.
According to the results of a new Maskína survey – conducted between November 22 to today – the People’s Party and the Progressive Party have increased their support by two percentage points since the last poll, Vísir reports.
Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin) and the Reform Party (Viðreisn) have each seen their support decline by roughly two percentage points.
The Social Democratic Alliance remains the largest party but has dropped by just over two percentage points since the previous poll, now polling at 20.4%. The Reform Party is the country’s second most popular party with 19.2% support, down 1.7 percentage points.
Support for the Independence Party (Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) remains virtually unchanged at 14.5%. The Centre Party (Miðflokkurinn) has lost one percentage point, now polling at 11.6%. The People’s Party (Flokkur fólksins) is at 10.8%, gaining two percentage points, as has the Progressive Party, now at 7.8%.
The Pirate Party is now polling above the parliamentary threshold at 5.4%, having risen by a percentage point since the last survey.
Support for the Socialist Party remains steady at 5% while the Left-Green Movement (Vinstri græn) has seen a slight increase to 3.7%. Meanwhile, the Democracy Party (Lýðræðisflokkurinn) has experienced a slight decline, polling at 1.1%, and support for Responsible Future (Ábyrg framtíð) stands at 0.5%.
Results of the latest Maskína poll:
Social Democratic Alliance – 20.4%
Reform Party – 19.2%
Independence Party – 14.5%
Centre Party – 11.6%
People’s Party – 10.8%
Progressive Party – 7.8%
Pirate Party – 5.4%
Socialist Party – 5%
Left-Green Movement – 3.7%
Democracy Party – 1.1%
Responsible Future – 0.5%
Source: Iceland Review (28.11.2024)
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