Security issues and a downturn in the economy are among the challenges Norway faces. But we also have advantages under Donald Trump, points out the US researcher. This means that Norway must prepare for four new years of Trump cooperation.

Donald Trump is the new president of the United States and number 47 in the series of American presidents. Photo: Brian Snyder / Reuters

Not everything will be new. But what is new is a bit too exciting to wait for, says Anders Romarheim to VG.

He is an associate professor and researcher on international security policy at the Department of Defense Studies (FFS).

Already in January, the Norwegian government began to prepare for a possible Trump victory. Romarheim believes Norway is better prepared now, compared to the last time Trump was president.

Among the challenges Norway must prepare for under Trump 2.0 are:

• We may become poorer: During the election night, the dollar strengthened against the Norwegian krone. Trump's victory could also stop planned interest rate cuts next year, some economists point out. It may be bad news for Norwegian wallets. In other words, Norwegians risk becoming, relatively speaking, even a little poorer than we have already experienced in recent years. Others point out that a Trump victory will not affect the stock market much over time.

• The possibilities for a trade war: There is an increased risk of a trade war under Trump. Among other things, it is about the fact that he has gone to the polls to introduce high customs walls around the US, but how big they will be is uncertain. Trump has previously said he plans to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 10% on goods from other countries. Among other things, this can negatively affect Norway's exports, but also the krone exchange rate.

• Security cooperation: The Norwegian authorities are better prepared for a possible Trump administration than in 2016. But: Several US scientists believe Norway must question whether NATO cooperation and Norway's own defense capabilities are sufficient going forward.

• Ukraine and Gaza: Several experts have expressed concern about what will happen to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East under Trump. Questions are therefore being asked as to how much the EU, including Norway, is able to make up for missing funds and initiatives from the US. At the same time, Trump has promised to "stop the wars"

A Trumpian government

Although there was more uncertainty about what Trump would say to the world in 2016, the defense researcher believes that Norway will have to deal with a far more Trumpian government than last time.

- There will be Trump loyalists on all sides who are willing to change their minds as soon as Trump asks them to. The prototype we have to go after is JD Vance.

- Are you worried?

- Yes. I am particularly concerned about developments in the war in Ukraine. That Trump is less enthusiastic about Zelenskyj than Biden was and Harris would have been, is completely clear.

Several US scientists have pointed out that Norway must discuss security policy and NATO membership if Trump becomes president again.

Where Norway gets security from if we consider that our own defense capability in combination with the NATO alliance is not sufficient under Trump, is a question we have to ask ourselves, says Romarheim.

But he also points out that Norway's foreign policy relationship with the United States is very good and that we have many common interests.

Romarheim has highlighted several strengths Norway has under a Trump government, among them our leaders. Both Jens Stoltenberg and Erna Solberg both became popular leaders with Trump when he was president.

The US researcher also points out that Norway has something that no one else can offer the US:

We have orchestra space for all Russian activity on the Northern Fleet's movement both under and above water. There is no better place than in Norway to follow it. It is part of an important intelligence collaboration between Norway and the United States.

A darker and uglier time

Professor Jennifer Leigh Bailey at NTNU believes Trump's victory is catastrophic.

I have no good thoughts. I would like to say something positive. It will be a darker and uglier time, she says to VG.

She believes the "dark age" will also affect Norway and highlights security policy as the biggest challenge:

Norway must question whether they can even be part of NATO and be allies with a country that is going to enter into such deep and ugly politics as the USA is getting to now, she says.

But without Nato, there are few other options.

There are no other democratic superpower alternatives, she says.

The fact that Trump has historically had a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin also worries her.

It bodes poorly for Northern Europe and is a major political problem for Norway. There is no major counterweight to Russia now. Europe must rely more on itself, but has not invested in the military and is not a military superpower.

Bigger changes with Trump

Political scientist and editor Are Tågvold Flaten in Amerikanspolitikk.no states briefly:

There are bigger changes with Trump as president than if Harris had won. That is the short answer, he says.

An important point he makes is that NATO support remains.

But there will be a focus on other matters for Trump. For example, he has promised customs walls. But he has said that in the election campaign, so it remains to be seen when it comes to real politics.

His scope politically will also be determined by the power he will gain in the two chambers of Congress.

But as former ambassador to the USA Kåre R. Aas said in our podcast: He thinks that Norway will manage just fine. Then it remains to see the size of the customs walls, says Tågvold Flaten.

Source: VG

Also read the publication:
Denmark Counts Upcoming Economic Losses