In a short time, production on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) will decline. And it will happen no matter how much you search or how far you get with technological development, the Norwegian Continental Shelf Directorate's latest forecasts show. It is expected that oil and gas production will approximately be the same as in 2006. But from 2025 production will decrease, according to Kjersti Dahle, director of technology, analyzes and coexistence in the Norwegian Subsea Directorate, which came out with Resource Report for 2024 on 21st August. The report comes out every quarter.
In the report, the directorate provides updated figures on how much oil and gas they believe is there on the Norwegian continental shelf, including what has been found and what can potentially be found. This year's report shows that production will decline irreversibly in the coming years. The question is how steep the fall will be.
The Directorate has developed three scenarios for total petroleum production on the Norwegian continental shelf until 2050. All the possibilities show a decline in production, but the rate of decline is different depending on the exploration activity and technological development.
- Now we expect that in 2050 we will have a production that is about a third of what we have today. That is the natural fall, and that is what is expected, says Dahle.
If the technology is developed, the search intensified and what is found is put into production quickly, the fall will slow down. If, on the other hand, there is little exploration and investment activity, there will be a rapid liquidation of the petroleum industry in Norway.
- All three of these scenarios are within the expectations one has for a global drop in oil and gas production in order to be able to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement.
Dahle says that it means a lot for the state's income, but it depends on the years to come.
- We have calculated that it can be close to an oil fund in value in that difference.
Dahle says that there are great opportunities left on the Norwegian continental shelf, and that we are in a position where we can continue to be a secure producer of oil, gas and energy for Europe.
- But there must be a will to lead and to invest in technology and to get more out of the fields that are already in production. For every kroner that is invested, we get three kroner back.
Secretary-General of the WWF World Wildlife Fund, Karoline Andaur, reacts strongly to the report.
She believes that the Norwegian Continental Shelf Directorate's estimates are based on completely unrealistic assumptions about exploration activity, oil prices and infrastructure.
- It is a shame to see that they are contributing to creating a false impression of how much money we can make from oil in vulnerable sea areas in the Arctic, she says.
She points out that Norway and all other countries with oil resources have received crystal clear advice both from climate scientists, the UN and the International Energy Agency to stop looking for more oil and gas.
- It doesn't help with several billions on the books if we can't stop the climate crisis, says Andaur.
Director for business policy and communications in Offshore Norway, Torbjørn Giæver Eriksen, says the report underlines the importance of continued exploration.
- Production on the NCS will be reduced going forward. In order for the decline not to be too steep, it is important that attractive land is still made available, he says.
Jan Narvestad, managing director at Worley Rosenberg, says that they have good and high production related to the oil and gas industry.
- For us going forward, it is incredibly important that we manage to maintain that activity, so that we have the opportunity to further develop our skills. In order to make that happen, we are dependent on being replenished with new projects.
He is aware that oil and gas will run out.
- What will be important for us is that we manage to capitalize on the great opportunities that lie in the coming years. That we can win projects within the renewable and sustainable segment.
Wind power in the North Sea will ensure the current we need in the future, and contribute to creating a new green industry. But what if nothing comes of it?
Narvestad says it is important that they can use the expertise they have acquired in new areas.
- We work on specific projects with offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture and battery production.
Abbreviated from: NRK
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