How can the accelerated economic development of the Arctic account for its warming territories? Why is it necessary to revise approaches to designing and constructing facilities in permafrost zones? Which agencies should be involved in monitoring the cryolithozone?

These questions were addressed by Mikhail Kuznetsov, Director of Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Center» (FASI) Vostokgosplan, during a session of the State Duma Committee on the Development of the Far East and Arctic.

"Two-thirds of Russia's territory is in the permafrost zone, which accounts for 30% of the global cryolithozone," Kuznetsov emphasized.

Over the past 50 years, Arctic air temperatures have risen by nearly 2°C — the fastest rate of climate change on Earth. This creates a dangerous situation for many structures in the region. Capital facilities in Russia’s Arctic zone, initially designed for stable permafrost conditions, now face risks of damage due to gradual ice melt in the soil, leading to subsidence and deformation.

"In 70% of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, soil bearing capacity will decrease by 15% or more by 2050," Kuznetsov stated. "The economic impact of permafrost thawing could be severe: scientists estimate that structural deformation may cause damages of up to 10 trillion rubles by 2050. Infrastructure such as pipelines, roads, and energy facilities is also at risk. Moreover, newly constructed facilities, including those under national projects, require additional measures to preserve permafrost stability."

Last year, the Russian government launched a state monitoring program to track the condition of permafrost.

Experts argue that a systemic approach to addressing cryolithozone thawing issues must include:

• Federal regulatory measures and harmonization of regional legislation,
• Comprehensive permafrost monitoring for strategic planning and rapid response.

A draft law on permafrost is a priority, Kuznetsov added.

"The law should establish legal frameworks to ensure safe and effective economic and other activities in the permafrost zone," he explained.

For the Arctic’s sustainable development, measures are needed, including:

• Baseline monitoring of permafrost conditions to evaluate undisturbed natural factors,
• Geotechnical monitoring of structures to track natural and anthropogenic influences on engineering infrastructure reliability,
• Special rules for economic activities,
• Preservation and stabilization measures for permafrost, including research and innovation.

Various ministries and agencies must collaborate on a unified permafrost monitoring system. The proposed law outlines the roles of government bodies:

For the Ministry of Construction, Housing and Utilities of the Russian Federation :

• Regulatory frameworks for construction and maintenance on permafrost,
• Systems for monitoring and oversight of structures' condition and construction impact on permafrost soils.

For the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation:

• Site-specific permafrost monitoring,
• Long-term change forecasting for urban and infrastructure planning,
• Assessing global climate processes' effects on permafrost boundaries.

For the Ministry of Energy and Federal Service for the Supervision of Environment, Technology and Nuclear Management:

• Regulatory support for energy infrastructure construction, operation, decommissioning, and reclamation on permafrost,
• Monitoring systems for supervised facilities with data integration into the national permafrost monitoring system.

For the Ministry of Transport:

• Monitoring transport infrastructure in permafrost areas, including roads, railways, and airports,
• Data submission to the national permafrost monitoring center.

The document is expected to establish core principles of state governance in permafrost management, define legislative and executive powers, set protocols for handling cryolithozone data, and outline measures for conservation, public oversight, and risk mitigation.

These efforts will ensure a unified interregional and interagency approach to assessing permafrost conditions and support informed decision-making to minimize risks and adverse effects of climate change and permafrost thaw,

Kuznetsov concluded.

Source: Eastern State Planning Center

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