It is expected that by 2050, global maritime transport will increase multiple times compared to 2014 levels. Research into alternative shipping routes— including Arctic ones—is crucial for global trade and the overall development of humanity. A team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has presented their view on the potential of Arctic shipping in the article Future Scenarios of Commercial Shipping in the Euro-Arctic Region. Despite the sanctions imposed by the West against Russia, research in the Arctic region continues with the participation of Russian researchers.
The concept of the Euro-Arctic Region today is associated with the scale of commercial shipping compared to other "classic" trade routes, emphasizing Russia's role as the operator and "owner" of the Northern Sea Route; the prospects for technological development of Arctic and non-Arctic stakeholders with interests in the region; and the necessity to update rules for all participants.
The study considers 5 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Global Resource Base.
The world will be divided into geopolitical blocks, technological progress and decarbonization may be slow. Demand for Arctic resources has increased, but navigation along the Northern Sea Route is restricted by Russian regulations. By 2050, the volume of domestic shipments is expected to be, while transit shipments will be low.
Scenario 2: Global Transport Route.
Global cooperation and technological progress have facilitated the development of Arctic shipping. Warming and advanced infrastructure have expanded Europe-Asia transit via the Northern Sea Route. By 2050, the volume of transit shipments is high.
Scenario 3: Abandoned Land.
Global recession, weak cooperation, and slow decarbonization have limited investment and activity in the Arctic. Demand for Arctic resources is low, and transit shipments are economically and politically unfeasible. By 2050, the volume of both domestic and transit shipments is low.
Scenario 4: "Preserve".
Rapid decarbonization and international cooperation have led to restrictions on economic activity in the Arctic to preserve nature. Shipping is limited, and infrastructure development is slow. By 2050, the volume of both domestic and transit shipments is low.
Scenario 5: Transpolar Shortcut.
Economic and technological cooperation continues, but climate change and melting ice have made the Transpolar Route viable. By 2050, the volume of domestic shipments is low, while transit shipments are high.
The number of possible scenarios is much more extensive, and many of the additional ones are more subtle and multifaceted. Russia alongside the state corporations, as well as other concerned Nordic countries, need to step up global outreach and develop relationships with investors working to implement the prospects of Arctic shipping. Global cooperation in the development of the NSR, northern shipbuilding and related industries, even if block–based, is an absolute necessity.
Source: GoArctic.ru
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