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The Future of Iceland’s Coalition Government Remains Uncertain

 

Minister of infrastructure Svandís Svavarsdóttir was elected chairperson of the Left-Green Movement at a party conference on October 5. Minister of social affairs and labour Guðmundur Ingi Guðbrandsson was re-elected vice-chairperson after serving as interim leader since spring.

Svandís Svavarsdóttir, the newly elected chair of the Left-Green Party, says that leaders of the parties in the coalition government will soon meet to discuss their continued cooperation. Photo: Svandís Svavarsdóttir / Golli

The party has lost a lot of support after two terms in a government coalition with the conservative Independence Party and the centrist Progressive Party. Recent polls show that the Left-Green Movement could lose all its seats in Alþingi, Iceland’s Parliament, with elections coming up next year.

Balancing the scales

In her first speech as chairperson, Svandís emphasised her party’s importance as a counter-balance against the parties on the right of the political spectrum, arguing that the Left-Greens would never agree to cutbacks in public services or the privatisation of the health care system.

Individualism and capitalism break us apart rather than bring us together. They create negative comparisons, rivalries and measurements of all things. See everything as a chance to profit and opportunities to make a killing. And some political parties use this development purposefully to gain followers.

Svandís said

She went on to say that the Left-Green Movement needed to be a strong voice in Icelandic politics and that many things would have gone worse over the last two terms if the party hadn’t been a part of the government coalition.

Our task is to secure the strength of the Left-Green Movement as a social force in Icelandic politics, she said.

Elections in the spring?

As reported, part of Svandís’ platform in her pursuing being chair of the Left-Greens was that she would push for elections in the spring. As it is now, elections are scheduled to take place in autumn 2025.

However, the law states that these elections must take place no later than that time, meaning there are two ways this can go: either the Left-Greens formally end their coalition partnership with the Independence Party and the Progressive Party, or the leaders of all three parties meet and decide to hold elections earlier than scheduled.

Bumpy road likely

The coalition government is experiencing historically low levels of support right now, with each party polling significantly worse than elections results in 2021 showed.

Photo: Alþingi, Iceland’s Parliament / Páll Stefánsson

With an election coming up next year, the government coalition of the Independence Party, Progressive Party and the Left-Green Movement is historically unpopular. Only 24% polled by Gallup said they supported the coalition, which is the lowest approval rating of a government coalition since polling began 30 years ago, RÚV reports.

This shows us that many disapprove of the coalition and what they offer on the issues that matter to voters, said Agnar Freyr Helgason, a political scientist at the University of Iceland.

Ruling unpopular

The Independence Party is polling at 14%, the Progressive Party at 6% and the Left-Greens at just over 4%, which could see them losing all their seats in Alþingi, Iceland’s Parliament.

Agnar Freyr said that coalition parties tend to poll worse at the end of their terms.

It’s unpopular to be in charge. The economic situation and the financial worries of households are issues that voters are concerned with, which in turn impact how the parties are polling.

Voting blocks

Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Alliance is polling at 26%, while the Centre Party is in second place, nearing 19% support. The centre-left Social Democratic Alliance, which has been in opposition since 2013, was polling at 31% this spring. “This is noteworthy for how long they’ve been polling this strongly, which can partially be explained by their change in leadership,” Agnar Freyr said.

Each party in the coalition is in charge of some portion of the ministries, which craft bills to be introduced to Parliament. It is generally expected that coalition parties will support legislation from each other, but that is not always the case. As Vísir reports, Svandís has stated that her party will not support any further changes to the Law on Foreigners, but Minister of Justice Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir of the Independence Party has stated that she will nonetheless submit a bill proposing such changes.

In fact, other coalition leaders have had mixed reactions to the idea of elections in the spring. Independence Party chair and Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson said that if the coalition cannot reach an agreement on important issues, that it would be better to hold early elections. Meanwhile, Progressive Party chair Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson, who is the Minister of Finance, has said that he cannot envision early elections when the government still needs to tackle inflation.

What the results of the upcoming coalition leaders’ meeting will be remains to be seen.

Source: Iceland Review (5.10.2024), Iceland Review (6.10.2024), Iceland Review (8.10.2024)

11.10.2024