The United States is Finland's most important trading partner in terms of the value of goods and services. According to Statistics Finland, the value of exports to the United States in 2023 was 15.5 billion euros.

Trump has promised so, and unfortunately that may be the case. Where Trump will target them remains to be seen, says Timo Vuori, Director of Trade Policy at the Confederation of Finnish Industries.

Along with Sweden, the United States is one of Finland's largest trading partners. If implemented, the import tariffs would weaken the opportunities for Finnish companies to export their products to the United States.

The tariffs also have spillover effects from the East

The danger for China is that when they cannot access the US market, China's overproduction would spill over into the European market and competition would become even more difficult, Vuori says.

At the same time, the competitiveness of Finnish export products would weaken compared to the U.S. and possibly the prices of imported products could rise.

The tariffs would also have an impact on security policy.

If Trump withdraws the so-called US security guarantees from Europe and NATO, Finland might look like a riskier market and Finland would not be as attractive an investment destination as it is now, secured by US security guarantees, Vuori says.

If Donald Trump implements 25 percent tariffs on the EU, the price tag will be high for Finnish chemical companies.

The effects on Finland's second largest export sector, the chemical industry, for example, would be significant.

42 percent of respondents to the Chemical Industry Employers' Association's member survey said that the tariffs would force them to significantly reduce exports to the United States.

Exports could be reduced by up to hundreds of millions of euros

If it were estimated that 25 percent tariffs would reduce exports to the United States by 12.5 percent, which is a reasonable assumption considering the research results and the industry's export structure, exports would decrease by 330 million euros annually, the association's economist Sampo Pehkonen commented in a press release.

In the longer term, we can talk about even higher figures, unless the euro weakens significantly and dilutes the impact of the tariffs.

There is also a big risk in the Chinese tariffs

According to chemical companies, the situation is complicated by the fact that there are hardly any replacement markets available to everyone.

Last week, Trump also announced that he would double the customs duties on products coming from China.

This would also have unpleasant effects on Finnish export companies, as cheap imports supported by the Chinese state would start to be diverted to EU countries.

The Finnish chemical industry's exports to the United States totaled 2.7 billion euros last year. Finland has exported primarily medicines to the United States, but also, for example, industrial oil products.

79 member companies responded to the Finnish Chemical Industry Association's member survey.

Based on:

Näin rajusti Trumpin EU-tullit voivat iskeä Suomen tärkeään vientialaan / MTV Uutiset (in Finnish)

Yksi kuva kertoo Yhdysvaltojen merkityksestä Suomelle – miten sen käy Trumpin tullisodassa? / MTV Uutiset (in Finnish)

Yllättävä uhka idästä – näin Trumpin tullit iskisivät Suomeen / MTV Uutiset (in Finnish)

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