The Arctic discourse has seen a new trend that seeks to change the perspective on climate change in relation to development and presence in the region: a ‘climate-benefitting’ Russia. We examine strategic documents, policies, and statements that contribute to this shaping image.
Prior to 2023-2024, the economic development of the country (as well as China's participation in Arctic politics) rarely included the context of benefiting from climate change, at least on a strategic level. However, this is changing rapidly, as Western countries increasingly adopt this concept.
Currently, Western descriptions of Russian or Chinese policy in the High North often highlight a cause-and-effect relationship between climate change and opportunities for both countries to expand their presence.
For example, the new Arctic strategy of the U.S. addresses this cause-and-effect relationship in the Memorandum:
… increasing collaboration between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia, and the accelerating impacts of climate change. This increasingly accessible region is becoming a venue for strategic competition, and the United States must stand ready to meet the challenge alongside Allies and partners.
2024 U. S. Arctic Strategy
The Arctic Century recently featured articles devoted to American strategy in the region:
Interestingly, this more mundane approach of ‘climate change = presence’ extends on a theoretical level, as the strategy also describes “rapid geophysical and geopolitical change,” “climate change and shifts in the geostrategic environment,” while providing motivation for increased U.S. efforts in the region.
Reduction in sea ice due to climate change means chokepoints such as the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia and the Barents Sea north of Norway are becoming more navigable and more economically and militarily significant.
2024 U. S. Arctic Strategy
While this may not sound new at first, just two years ago there was no such connection; previous U.S. strategies did not draw these logical links. For example, the U.S.’s 2022 National Strategy for the Arctic Region mentions both climate change and Russia but does not highlight this cause-and-effect relationship at all.
This strategy, an update of its 2013 predecessor, addresses the climate crisis with greater urgency and directs new investments in sustainable development to improve livelihoods for Arctic residents while conserving the environment. It also acknowledges increasing strategic competition in the Arctic since 2013…
2022 U. S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region
Additionally, even in the executive summary, Russia and climate change are separated into different ‘pillars’: “Climate Change and Environmental Protection” and “International Cooperation and Governance”.
In the 2024 Canadian strategic document Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence, we notice a similar pattern in a message from the Minister of National Defence annexed to the document.
In our North, we need to confront the reality of climate change. Our Arctic is warming at four times the global average, opening the region to the world, which was previously protected by the Polar Ice Cap year-round. By 2050, the Arctic Ocean could become the most efficient shipping route between Europe and East Asia. We are seeing greater Russian activity in our air approaches, and a growing number of Chinese vessels and surveillance platforms are mapping and collecting data about the region.
William Sterling Blair, Minister of National Defence of Canada
For more on this topic:
Practically identical terms and cause-and-effect descriptions appear in Canada’s statements on forming a coalition with Nordic countries, Germany's new Arctic policy guidelines, and Japan's statements related to Arctic affairs. Nevertheless, Japan and Germany seem more focused on increasing economic presence and utilising northern sea routes, contrary to viewpoints suggesting that climate change facilitates military expansion.
Notably, different countries' strategies mention varying rates of thawing: according to Russia's and Germany’s documents, the Arctic is thawing twice as fast as other parts of the world; according to the United States—three times; while Canada estimates three to four times faster.
Overall, countries are attempting to alter discourse surrounding climate change to create an image of a climate-benefitting Russia and China. While previous Arctic strategies or policies mentioned both climate change/thawing ice and balancing Russia's influence in the region, these elements seemed to be never connected.
The Editorial Board of The Arctic Century
Also read the publication:
Arctic Hydrology In Need of Consolidation
