Improving meteorology remains one of Russia's top priorities in the Arctic. Recent initiatives and proposals suggest the establishment of new meteorological systems and stations on the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
The increasing significance of meteorology is explained by the growing unpredictability of ice conditions. According to the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI), the ice situation in June and July in the Kara Sea was ‘an anomaly’ and is thought to be the most challenging in 30 years.
Among the navigational difficulties are the ‘new ice phenomena’ and a more complex ice structure, which is primarily linked to the increased movement of heavy ships and icebreakers that alter the natural layering of ice.
During the Arctic-Regions forum in Arkhangelsk, Alexander Makarov, the director of AARI, shared plans for a new meteorological system for the NSR.
A precise system is vital for safe navigation and better predictability of ice conditions. According to the director, the Institute’s current predictions are accurate in 92-96% of cases.
The proposed course of modernisation aims to improve this rate and includes the following initiatives:
It should be noted that cooperation between different entities remains paramount, as a swift exchange of information is central to safe navigation through the NSR. This kind of cooperation also was a major topic of discussion at this year’s conference POLAR 2024 at AARI.
From the state’s perspective, safer navigation is always a top priority for the Route’s stable operation. It is evident that considerable effort is being made to achieve the ultimate goal—a year-round navigation of the NSR, as well as the targets for this year and the decade. This also aligns with Rosatom’s recent request for more nuclear icebreakers in the fleet.
In this context, there is another interesting proposal that was also discussed at the Arkhangelsk forum: to construct a network of seismological stations along the northern coast of Yakutia.
The stations tracking seismic activity may seem somewhat unusual for the Arctic, but some earthquakes near Alaska and Canada have actually reached a magnitude of 4. In addition to monitoring earthquakes, the new stations will help register ice movement and predict the formation of icebergs.
The experts say that a new station is most needed on the New Siberian Islands. However, currently, there are only two seismic stations in the eastern part of the Russian Arctic: in Tiksi and in Chukotka.
Regarding the issue of climate change and its effects on shipping, The Arctic Century previously reported on a similar situation in the Canadian Northwest Passage, where climate change and thawing ice also have not facilitated easier navigation, the key difference being that the study in question indicated a decreasing length of the navigational season.
The Editorial Board of the Arctic Century
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