Why do Russian researchers call for a federal law on permafrost, and what are the environmental and economic consequences of permafrost thawing?
A collective of Russian scientists specialising in permafrost research carried out a study estimating the economic damage caused by permafrost thawing. By rough estimation, the damage could surpass 10 trillion rubles (~$109 billion) by 2050. Notably, this assessment does not account for future investments in gas and oil pipelines, which play a significant role in the Arctic economy. Some sources indicate that 3 trillion rubles have already been lost due to thawing, as permafrost covers 65% of Russia.
According to the researchers, there is a need for a programme for background and geotechnical monitoring of permafrost, backed by a federal law that would establish a new government body functioning at both federal and regional levels. Subsequently, this idea was supported in the Russian Senate. Currently, Russia only conducts background monitoring of permafrost.
The Arctic Century previously featured news about the construction of the northernmost monitoring station on Hayes Island and an investigative article regarding the Russian permafrost zone and its technological challenges. At that time, the economic damage from thawing was estimated at 5 trillion rubles by 2050.
The primary economic problem associated with thawing is ground shifting, which directly affects and damages buildings and existing infrastructure. From an environmental standpoint, the cryolithozone is one of the largest carbon reservoirs in the world. The issue becomes more complicated as carbon is emitted not just through methane leaks but also through organic carbon, which, following permafrost degradation, is processed by microbes that emit carbon dioxide.
On the Kola Peninsula, Karelian researchers also monitor the permafrost, which appears as so-called palsa (Finnish for ‘a peat mound in a bog’). The thawing of palsa serves as an indicator of climate change: existing studies have shown that permafrost thaw also depends on sediment amounts as well as increasing temperatures.
Current projections indicate that all palsa will thaw within the next 40 to 60 years.
In Siberia and the Far East, there is also an indirect connection between forest fires and thawing. According to Russian scientists, more than half of fires occur in cryolithozone larch forests. Larch is known as a tree that ‘loves fire’, a pyrophytic species primarily found in permafrost areas.
Overall, the economic damage from thawing will always be underestimated, as this issue encompasses a multitude of factors. According to data from the UN, it is already too late to stop thawing entirely; however, there is a chance for a positive scenario that estimates losing only 25% of permafrost. This underscores the substantial need for a comprehensive monitoring system and a legal framework to address this issue.
The Editorial Board of the Arctic Century
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