Shelf exploration, 'crazy' shipping routes, record-breaking ice decrease—how was the Arctic perceived ten years ago?
We revisit media from a decade ago to trace how perceptions of the region have shifted, how the Arctic has become a focal point of international tension, and which topics have emerged or faded amid the informational noise of the 2020s.
One of the sources of tension between countries in the 'peaceful Arctic' of the 2000s was the issue of the Arctic Ocean floor, as it could instantly grant resource-rich underwater territories to claimant nations. Russia invested significant effort into attempting to claim the Lomonosov and Mendeleyev Ridges as extensions of its continental shelf. The famous Arktika-2007 expedition, dedicated to studying the borders and materials of the Lomonosov Ridge, culminated in planting a Russian flag on the seabed at the North Pole, sparking a strong reaction from Western countries.
Although this issue remains under discussion and continues to drive expeditions (such as the Russian North-Pole 42, which studied the Lomonosov Ridge), it has largely disappeared from the public discourse. In 2013 and 2014, the debate reached its peak when Canada (in 2013) and Denmark (in 2014) submitted applications to the UN to review their claims to the continental shelf.
As countries cannot resubmit claims to the UN due to legal limitations imposed by UNCLOS—which stipulates that a state may submit its claim within ten years of ratifying the convention—the topic periodically reemerges, primarily in the context of bilateral relations. For instance, Canada and the U.S. discussed their maritime boundaries in 2024. The role of crises in the 2010s remains a vivid backdrop to these discussions.
In 2012, The Washington Post reported on Arctic sea ice reaching a record low, while NBC News speculated, following a new study, whether global warming would open 'crazy' shipping routes. By 2050, the study predicted that "[o]rdinary vessels, which account for more than 99 percent of shipping traffic, could easily navigate the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coastline and, in some years, even find a route through the fabled Northwest Passage."
By the middle of this century, thanks to climate change, anyone with a light icebreaker can spend their Septembers going anywhere they want in the Arctic Ocean, including straight over the North Pole, according to a new study.
Unsurprisingly, this line of thought could be observed not just in the midst of journalists but also in the top political circles. This Western perception of the sea-ice issues provided a solid reason that icebreaking ships are not needed and almost assured the countries not to waste resources on building ice-class vessels. Not until 2024, at least, when the ICE Pact between Finland, Canada, and the U.S. was agreed upon. Yet, this still has to go further, and only Canada seems to be making larger efforts in constructing new icebreakers.
Most forecasts published up to 2015 spoke only of potential summer navigation. Fast forward to 2025, and one of the main priorities is year-round shipping on the Northern Sea Route, which becomes the national project for Russia. As for the climate change tempos, since then, these news have become almost routine, a new reality, and ‘record-breaking summers’ cannot surprise the readers.
While the Central Passage (over the North Pole) remains indeed a fable, a distant possibility, the Northern Sea Route is actively navigable during the summer and has drawn interest from Russian officials and Chinese companies seeking to achieve year-round navigation. Meanwhile, the Northwest Passage is navigable during the summer, though shipping conditions remain challenging towards the end of the season.
Interestingly, back then, the transport arteries of the North were viewed not only in terms of resource exploration but also as opportunities for tourism—a concept that feels somewhat difficult to imagine today. Additionally, the topic of climate change was still debated, with The Washington Post publishing articles about "global warming skeptics."
Economic discussions have since shifted from shelf exploration, territorial claims, and more conventional oil and natural gas mining to new key trends, among such:
And finally, unsurprisingly, the main topic of today's Arctic discussions revolves around the role of trade routes. What had been called ‘crazy’ ten years ago has become a new reality, the climate change expectations were overtaken by the actual rising temperatures, and the Arctic has become a focal point for states, one of the prominent zones of interest for global leaders, something that couldn’t be imagined ten years ago.
The Editorial Board of the Arctic Century
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