Opinions

Warming in International Relations in the Arctic

 

The role of the Arctic Council, as a permanent platform for cooperation between Arctic and non-Arctic countries, is constantly increasing, despite the challenges that this international organisation is currently facing. This cannot be denied. Within the framework of the Arctic Council, scientifically sound measures are being taken to protect the environment in the region, prevent emergencies, and prepare for response, as well as preserve Arctic flora and fauna.

In March 2022, however, the traditional policy of the Arctic Council member countries came to an end. This policy was always based on the principle of avoiding bringing disagreements from other regions into Arctic cooperation.

Thawing snow and ice depicting the warming political climate in international relations
Credit: Igor Vasilevich

According to the Joint Statements from March 3 and June 8, 2022, seven Western member states of the Arctic Council adopted a policy to classify the Russian Federation as an aggressor. However, the Arctic Council did not accept Russia's counterarguments against this classification, in violation of the general principle of law—the need for a fair comparison of positions between parties.

It is worth noting the forecast of experts from the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) for 2023, who suggested several possible scenarios:

  1. Proactive withdrawal of Russia from the Arctic Council in response to the actions of other member states.
  2. Creation of an alternative intergovernmental mechanism for managing the Arctic by Western countries without Russia's involvement.
  3. The Russian Federation continues to be a member of the Arctic Council de jure, despite predicting further obstacles from Western countries in the actual participation of Russian representatives in council events.

When all three scenarios are considered, none of them pose a threat to Russia, but each causes irreparable damage to the sustainable development of the Arctic.

According to several objective criteria, Russia is a major power in the Arctic, due to its longest coastline in the Arctic Ocean seas, its large population living beyond the Arctic Circle, and its unique military and civilian infrastructure, including its nuclear icebreaker fleet.

The international community recognizes that unwarranted recognition of Russia as a "terrorist state" or "rogue state" not only harms Russia, but also the Arctic region and other members of the Arctic Council. As a result, we are currently seeing the implementation of a third scenario, albeit in a more moderate form. This is evidenced by recent statements from the Russian Foreign Ministry, which stated that in the second half of 2023, thanks to the efforts of the Norwegian presidency, all six working groups met in the format of video conferences. These discussions addressed issues such as sustainable development, climate change, environmental protection, and emergency prevention and response, with representatives from relevant Russian government agencies and organizations in attendance.

Is it time to update forecasts? There is no denying that "warming" has begun in the Arctic, and there are various perspectives on this issue. The global community, including Russia, has long supported cooperation in the Arctic to maintain stability and ensure sustainable development, protect the rights of indigenous peoples, and preserve the fragile Arctic ecosystem. Despite these efforts, challenges in the Arctic continue to exist, and delaying solutions could jeopardize the future of the region for political reasons.

The Editorial Board of the Arctic Century

03.02.2025